双语｜外媒评论“一带一路”：有什么机遇？有什么疑问？

双语｜外媒评论“一带一路”：有什么机遇？有什么疑问？

摘要

一带一路 倡议有望产生实实在在的效益。但这一可能性是否会变为现实，则很大程度上要看中国的目标是什么。 One Belt, One Road and many questions If President Donald Trump is opening a void by withdr......“一带一路”倡议有望产生实实在在的效益。但这一可能性是否会变为现实，则很大程度上要看中国的目标是什么。

One Belt, One Road ― and many questions

If President Donald Trump is opening a void by withdrawing American leadership on global trade, President Xi is determined to fill it― and the world is taking notice of the shift. Nearly 30 heads of state, the chiefs of theInternational Monetary Fund,World Bank,the UN, anddelegates from around the worldconverged on Beijing for a conference promoting China’s Belt and Road initiative, its new Silk Road.

如果说唐纳德?特朗普总统通过让美国撤出全球贸易领导地位，留下了一个真空，

那么中国正决心填充这一真空，而世界正在注意到这一转变。近30个国家的领导人，国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行(WB)、联合国(UN)的负责人，以及来自全球各国的代表齐聚北京，参加推销中国新丝绸之路――一带一路倡议(Belt and Road Initiative)――的会议。

The plan is a hugely ambitious one, to build roads, rails, ports, pipelines and other infrastructurejoining China to Central Asia, Europe and Africaby land and sea. Spurs from the overland “belt” and the maritime “road” reach into Southeast Asia and towards the Indian Ocean. Some$900bn of investments, financed by a variety of Chinese or China-backed banks and credit funds, are projected.

这是一个极为雄心勃勃的计划，打算修建公路、铁路、港口、油气管道及其他基础设施，通过陆路和海路把中国与中亚、欧洲和非洲连接起来。陆路的丝绸之路经济带和海上丝绸之路的支脉延伸至东南亚和印度洋。规划了大约9000亿美元的投资，资金来源是多家中资银行或中国支持的银行及信贷基金。

Visitors to the conference will have both hopes and fears. Rising western powers also deployed finance to develop markets for their products and expand political spheres of influence. Poorer countries were happy to take the money ― with mixed results for both sides.There is more going on here, however, than the repetition of a colonial pattern in the 21st century.

这次会议的与会者将同时带着希望和担忧。西方强国在上升期也曾投下资金，以便为其产品开拓市场，并扩大其政治影响力版图。较贫穷国家乐于接受这些资金――这为双方都带来了喜忧掺半的结果。不过，这一切不是一种殖民模式在21世纪的重演。

China presents the Silk Road not primarily as a development project, but as a stimulus for trade in a world struggling withmiddling economic growth and stalling trade volumes.Lower trade barriersandregulatory harmonisationare, quite rightly, on theagenda alongside infrastructure. Many of the countries the initiative would affect need better infrastructure and deeper international trade relationships. There is the potential for it to do real good.

中国并未主要把新丝绸之路呈现为一个发展项目，而是为了在难以摆脱经济增长乏力、贸易量停滞的当今世界将其作为刺激贸易的手段。除了基础设施之外，降低贸易壁垒和促进监管协调也被相当正确地列入了议程。该倡议会影响到的许多国家需要改善基础设施，也需要深化国际贸易往来。一带一路倡议确实有可能产生实实在在的效益。

Whether that potential is realised depends in large part on what China’s objectives are, and whether it pursues them with discipline. The initiative plays to China’s strengths. The country has more savings than it can invest at home and experience with big projects. The worry is the plan will export the worst aspects of the Chinese economy, while increasing the strains on its already stressed financial system.

这一可能性是否会变为现实，则在很大程度上要看中国的目标是什么，以及中国会不会有纪律地向这些目标努力。一带一路倡议发挥了中国的长处。中国的存款超出了国内的投资需求，中国也拥有承接大项目的经验。令人担心的是，该计划在为中国已经压力巨大的金融体系带来更大压力的同时，将会输出其经济体中最糟糕的方面。

For all the success of the Chinese economic expansion over the past several decades, the country is burdened byinefficient allocation of capital, which one might expect from an economy dominated by state-owned enterprises, and the resulting overcapacity in many industries. China may be primarily interested in redirecting surplus savings, exporting its overproduction and giving its own construction companies work abroad. If that is so, the projects that are built might not be the ones the host countries need. As such, they will not generate the expected revenues. The loans that back them will not be repaid, hurting the host country’s credit rating ― and leaving bad assets clogging the Chinese financial system.

尽管中国经济发展过去几十年里颇为成功，但该国仍受到资金配置效率低下以及随之而来的许多行业产能过剩的 拖累。中国的主要兴趣也许在于，改变过剩储蓄的流向，出口过剩产出，并让本国建筑企业接到境外业务。如果是这样，那么建成的项目未必是东道国所需要的。因 此，这些项目不会产生预期收入。支持项目建设的贷款将不会被偿还，进而损害东道国的信用评级，并导致不良资产堵塞中国的金融体系。

How will the world know if the initiative is working as hoped?By looking at the projects. While they are being built, local and global businesses, not just Chinese ones, should be involved. Once built, they should be well utilised. If these conditions are not met, it will be a clue that China, instead of contributing to the global recovery, is trying to export its own economic imbalances while buying regional leadership.

世界将如何知道这个倡议是否产生预期效果？答案是通过考察项目。在项目建设过程中，当地和全球企业――不仅是中国企业――应该参与其中。一旦建成，项目应得到很好的利用。如果不能满足这些条件，那将是一个线索，说明中国非但没有对全球经济复苏作出贡献，反而试图在买下地区领导地位的同时，输出本国的经济失衡。

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