上一次黄金ETF流动如此这般强劲时，美联储正在实施量化宽松

‘纸’黄金市场开始出现供不应求了。

黑石集团做出了一个令人十分吃惊的决定，由于对黄金需求的火热，这家公司暂停了ETF(交易所交易基金)的发行(比如资金的流入导致无法提供足够的实物黄金来满足必要的需求)。在黑石做出这个决定之前，市场上黄金ETF出现了自2009年2月以来的最大资金流入(2009年2月也正是美联储开始第一轮量化宽松，向市场释放了数万亿新增流动性)。

图：十年现货黄金价格走势(上)，以及ETF(GLD+IAU)资金流动(下)

正如彭 博 社报道的，2016年2月份，投资者流入市场上两支最大黄金交易所交易基金的资金量达到了50亿美元。

State Street(美国道富银行)的SPDR Gold Shares交易所交易基金2月份吸引了41.86亿美元的资金流入，黑石集团的iShares Gold Trust则接纳了8.87亿美元的资金流入。

上一次黄金交易所交易基金的资金流入量比现在还高时，标准普尔500指数年内出现了超过18%的暴跌，而2009年2月，美联储实施第一轮量化宽松也进入第三个月，目的在于刺激需求，支撑金融领域。

实际上，自2016年年初以来，所有金融工具内的公开黄金持仓量都一直在暴涨。

图：每周公开(透明)黄金持仓量情况

考虑到黄金需求的极端情况，再加上投资者对货币和财政机构的不满，Casey Research公司的贾斯汀-斯匹特勒(Justin Spitttler)对接下来可能发生的状况给出了一些有意思的观点…

如果你现在购买黄金…政府会追踪你。

If you’re buying gold, you’re likely not doing it to make money. You’re buying it to make sure you don’t wake up poor one day.

如果你现在购买黄金，那么你购买黄金很可能不是为了赚钱。你买黄金是为了确保某一天醒过来的时候你不会变得贫困。

Gold has been used as money for thousands of years because it is easily divisible, easily transportable, has intrinsic value, is durable, and has consistent form around the world. And, as Doug Casey reminds us, it's a good form of money because governments can’t print it on a whim. You can't “Bernanke your way” to wealth with gold.

由于易于分割，运输，具有内在价值，耐用以及在全世界范围内具有统一的形式，数千年来黄金一直被用作货币。此外正如传奇投机者道格凯西(Doug Casey)提醒我们的，黄金还是一种很好的货币，因为政府不能一时心血来潮就去进行印刷。你无法使用黄金一种“伯南克的方式”获得财富。

When today’s dramatic central banking experiment blows up, gold will hold its value…unlike paper currencies such as the dollar.

当今天央行们戏剧性的试验破裂时，黄金仍会保持其价值，并不会像诸如美元一样的纸币出现贬值。

That’s exactly why the government will try to take it from you.

正是由于这个原因，政府会从你身上取走黄金。

The last time the government confiscated gold was during the Great Depression. In 1933, President Roosevelt outlawed owning most forms of gold. He claimed that people “hoarding” gold were making the Great Depression worse. The penalty for not turning your gold in to the government was a $10,000 fine and 10 years in jail.

上一次政府把黄金充公时是在大萧条期间。1933年，罗斯福总统宣布拥有大多数形式的黄金为非法。他宣称“囤积”黄金的人让大萧条更严重了。如果你不把你持有的黄金上交政府，你面临的惩罚是10000美元的罚款和10年的牢狱。

Of course, Roosevelt gave his closest supporters notice before issuing the ban. They had time to move their gold to another country. Most folks weren’t that lucky.

当然，罗斯福在发布黄金持有禁令前通知了他关系最亲密的支持者。这样一来，这些支持者便有时间把黄金转移到国外。大多数民众就没那么幸运了。

This time around, the confiscation will be digital.

这一次，国家的充公会是数字形式的。

Most people own gold through a fund like Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) or Central Fund of Canada (CEF). The former will give you physical gold in exchange for your shares, once a month, if you own enough shares. The latter won’t give you the physical gold.

大多数人是通过诸如Sprott实物黄金信托基金(PHYS)或是加拿大中央基金(CEF)来持有黄金的。如果你持有足够的份额，那么你可以通过第一种方式(PHYS)使用你的黄金份额来进行每月一次的实物黄金兑换。第二种黄金持有方式(CEF)则不会给你实物黄金。

Because this gold is owned through a brokerage account, it will be easy for the government to confiscate.

由于这种黄金是通过一个经纪账户持有的，因此政府对黄金的充公会比较容易。

What about physical gold? If you bought it from a dealer and paid with a wire transfer, the banking regulators have plenty of documentation. They’ll likely let you keep the gold. But it will be illegal to trade. If you don’t obey, you’ll be subject to a 99% tax on its value.

那么实物黄金呢？如果你从一家经销商那购买了黄金，并且通过电汇来付款，那么银行监管机构同样会有足够的文件记录。他们可能会允许你持有黄金，但交易是非法的。如果你不遵守这个规则，那么他们会收取你黄金价值99%的税收。

But there’s one way to buy gold so the government can’t track you. I’ve been doing it for years. You can do it, too. It’s buying at a locally owned jewelry store. These stores get a few common gold coins in every week. If you know what you’re looking for, it’s a great way to buy gold with cash.

但是还有一种购买黄金的方式，使用这种方式政府无法对你进行追踪。我已经通过这种方式购买黄金好多年了。你也可以做到。这种方式就是从一家本地拥有的珠宝店那购买黄金。这些珠宝店每个星期都会有金币进来。如果你知道你想要的东西是什么，通过珠宝店无疑是一种很好的用现金购买黄金的方式。

However, the window of opportunity is closing quickly. In fact, I went to buy gold today…and saw this new sign.

然而，这个机会的窗口也正在迅速的关闭。事实上，今天我去购买黄金…却看到了这个新的标语。

It says, “CASH transactions are limited to $6,000 within a 48 hour period.”

这个标语是：现金交易限于48小时内完成，最高额度为6000美元。”

$6,000 seems like an arbitrary number. And 48 hours seems even more contrived. This is a sign of the times. Governments are cracking down on cash. They want to know every detail of your financial life. They want to know what you buy and what you sell.

6000美元看起来是一个很武断主观的数字。48小时的时间被认为有较强的谋划痕迹。这是一个时代的信号。政府正在压制现金。他们想知道你金融生活的方方面面。他们想知道你买了什么，你卖了什么。

Paper cash is hard to track. So, little by little, governments are getting rid of it. Notice the $500 bill featuring President McKinley to the left of the sign. Years ago, $500 bought you a brand new car. Today, it barely buys a steak dinner for a family of five.

纸币现金是很难追踪的。因此，政府会逐渐抛弃纸币现金。注意上图标语中左边那张500美元的纸币，上面是麦金莱总统的头像。多年前，500美元可以买一辆新车了。现在呢，它只能让一家五口享受一顿牛排晚餐了。

Cash is on its way out of existence. The government stopped issuing $500 bills in 1969. Last week, Harvard professor Larry Summers wrote an article titled “It’s time to kill the $100 bill.” The New York Timespublished an article arguing the same thing. Their reasoning is, big bills make it easier for criminals to commit crimes. If you’re not a criminal, you shouldn’t have a problem with the government knowing everything you buy and sell.

现金正在消失。美国政府于1969年停止发行500美元纸币。上周，哈佛大学教授拉里-萨默斯(Larry Summers)写了一篇文章，题为“是时候抛弃100美元纸币了”。此外，《纽约时报》还发表了一篇文章，表达了相同的观点。他们的理由是，大面额的纸币会让犯罪分子的犯罪活动更容易。如果你不是罪犯，那么政府知道所有你买和卖的东西也不会给你带来问题。

The $6,000 limit will soon be $1,000. The local jewelry shop is the last place you can buy gold without the government tracking you. Take advantage of it while you can.

6000美元的限额很快会变成1000美元。本地的珠宝店是你能在政府不追踪你的情况下购买黄金唯一的地方了。在你还能利用这个机会的时候赶紧行动吧。(双刀)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-05/last-time-gold-etf-flows-were-strong-fed-was-starting-qe

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