双语 | 摩根士丹利118页调查报告的结果：这三支中国股或将大涨！

双语 | 摩根士丹利118页调查报告的结果：这三支中国股或将大涨！

摘要

导读：作为华尔街的老牌投行，摩根士丹利在业内享有极高的知名度。近日大摩发了一份118页的报告,重点提到了中国的三只股票, 称他们在近期内有30%上涨空间。 BARRONS 巴伦周刊 Febru......导读：作为华尔街的老牌投行，摩根士丹利在业内享有极高的知名度。近日大摩发了一份118页的报告,重点提到了中国的三只股票, 称他们在近期内有30%上涨空间。

BARRON'S 巴伦周刊

February 15, 2017

3 China Stocks for the Long and Short Term

The three companies below look likely to reward investors, according to a recent report by Morgan Stanley. Long-term, these companies have favorable exposure to rising wealth in China. Near-term, their shares look underpriced, offering potential gains of over 30% in a year.

根据摩根士丹利近期发布的一份报告，这三家中国公司值得投资者重点关注。从长远看，它们有望从中国的财富增长中收益，近期来看，这三家公司的股价看起来被低估了，未来一年内股价有30%的上涨空间。

在 本周发布的一份长达118页报告中，摩根士丹利分析师、策略师和经济学家们指出，中国将避开人们所担心的金融冲击，并且逐步朝更高价值的经济活动转移，享 受持续增长，在2027年前达到高收入经济体地位。现在，中国股票在投资者投资组合权重处于十年低点。光明的前景和较低的估值令中国股票有望在长期内获得 突出的表现。

Morgan Stanley highlights a dozen firms worth $2 billion or more that are closely tied to rising incomes and other economic changes. Among these, three stand to gain over 30% in the near-term, judging by the firm’s price targets: Alibaba Group (ticker: BABA), Bank of China (3988.HK) and Zhengzhou Yutong Bus (600066.CN).

摩根士丹利重点提及了12家估值达到或超过20亿美元且与收入增长和其他经济变化紧密相关的公司。从摩根士丹利给出的目标价来看，三家公司的股价有望在短期增长逾30%，这三家公司是阿里巴巴、中国银行和郑州宇通。

Alibaba’s revenue is expected to grow 36% this year, versus 22% for Amazon.com (AMZN) in the U.S., and like Amazon, Alibaba has plans to build a large public cloud business in China and abroad. Shares trade at 25 times this year’s earnings estimate. Morgan Stanley sees shares hitting $140 in a year, for a gain of 38%.

今年阿里巴巴的营收有望增加36%，而美国亚马逊公司仅有望增加22%。和亚马逊一样，阿里巴巴已经计划打算在中国和海外开辟庞大的公共云业务。基于阿里 巴巴今年的利润预期，其股票的市盈率为25倍。摩根士丹利还预期阿里巴巴股价有望达到每股140美元，相当于增长38%。

Bank of China is astate-owned bank with a focus on commercial lending and operations in dozens ofcountries. Its overseas loan book has been growing at 12.4% a year compoundedover the past three years, faster than its 8.6% growth at home, which in turnis faster than growth rates at big U.S. banks. Shares recently traded at a 27%discount to those of Bank of America (BAC) relative to book value, versus a 23%premium, on average, over the past five years. Predicted upside: 39%.

中 国银行是一家致力于在数十个国家发展商业借贷业务的国有银行。过去三年，其海外贷款总额以年均复利增长率12.4%的速度增长，远高于其国内的平均增幅 8.6%，甚至还高于美国大型银行的增长率。就账面价值而言，中国银行的股价近来比美国银行的股价低27%。然而过去五年，中国银行股票的平均 溢价率为23%。摩根士丹利预期中国银行股价将上涨39%。

Zhengzhou Yutong Bus is the largest bus maker in China and exports busses to Europe and South America. New electric models have sold well at home and could see strong demand in Europe in coming years. The shares go for 12 times earnings. Morgan Stanley predicts a rise to 28 yuan, for a 43% gain.

郑州宇通客车是中国最大的客车制造商，向欧洲和南美出口客车。该公司的新款电动客车在国内取得了不错的销售成绩，未来几年有可能热销欧洲。宇通汽车股票的市盈率目前为12倍。摩根士丹利预期其股价将上涨43%至每股28元。

Other stocks with potential for 20% to 30% upside over the next year include China Petroleum (0386.HK),Ctrip.com (CTRP) and Sinopharm (1099.HK).

其他未来一年价格有望增长20%到30%的股票包括了中国石化、携程和国药控股。

注：本文观点不代表投资建议。

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